Erik WallinConsider the grocery sector, for example. From panic buying and shortages of staple items to a huge rise in demand for grocery delivery services, the industry has felt the coronavirus’ effects in numerous ways.
But which of these new trends will remain once the world returns to normal? Or to as close to normal as it can be in the wake of a black swan event like the COVID-19 outbreak?
This is where the science of forming habits comes into play. Habits are behaviors that we perform automatically, without conscious thought. They allow our thought processes to focus on other matters. It can take time to form a habit but, once it has become established routine, that habit can then be tough to break.
For years, shoppers have engaged at an incremental rate with online grocery ordering. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic has suddenly and massively increased the number of those who are prepared to trial grocery delivery services. It has had more impact thanthat any number of marketing campaigns over the years, as shoppers now seek to do all they can to socially distance themselves from their fellow humans.
But will online grocery shopping become a habit, or will we all revert to shopping in-store as soon as it is safe to do so?
Much of this depends on the time that the coronavirus pandemic lasts. Popular science has long cherished the idea that it takes 21 days to form a habit, but this is actually something of a distortion on the truth.
According to University College London (UCL), it was plastic surgeon and psychologist Dr Maxwell Maltz who first planted the 21-day idea back in the 1960s. However, Maltz actually said that it takes “a minimum of about 21 days to effect any perceptible change.”
When the UCL team conducted their own research, they found that it takes an average of 66 days for a behavior to become automatic. This means that, if the coronavirus lockdown in the US lasts for just over two months, there is a likelihood that some of those who have turned to online grocery shopping will stick with it once daily life returns to normal.
Of course, it’s not just the science of habit formation that will keep people doing their weekly shop online. Delivery groceries are extremely convenient and many of those who are now trialing such services for the first time will enjoy the experience.
So what happens to the market if this behaviour is creating a habit? How can we expect the market to evolve? The overall grocery market was worth $632 billion in 2018, with 10% of US consumers regularly shopping online for their food. The market value for online groceries doubled from 2016 to 2018, reaching a total of $26 billion. Business Insider Intelligence projects that that value will keep increasing, reaching $117 billion by 2023 — a near-five-fold increase in the five years from 2018.
This means grocery retailers will invest heavily in their online businesses in the future, funding the expansion of all aspects of their organizations, from operations to marketing and feature development.
On top of the increased investments that we will see from grocery retailers, they will add plenty of other strategies in place to keep their customers engaged as well. Their aim is to make online food shopping more enjoyable and exciting than in-store shopping. Introductory discounts and dedicated apps both play a role here. Customers who shop online can discover shoppable recipes and even entire menu plans that will fill their cart while focusing on their specific preferences, from organic produce to bargain basics.
Ultimately, it is likely to be a combination of the psychology of habit forming and the discovery and enjoyment of the experience of shopping for groceries online that will keep shoppers doing so post-pandemic.
aviors become entrenched for all the right reasons.
Erik Wallin
Louise Taylor